How To Win The $13.6 Million TOTO Hong Bao Draw 2019 With The Help of Statistics. Is It Worth It?
 
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How To Win The $13.6 Million TOTO Hong Bao Draw 2019 With The Help of Statistics. Is It Worth It?

Ming Feng
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Winning the TOTO is every Singaporean’s dream.

TL;DR: We wanted to hack the TOTO with math. Here’s what we found out

$13.6million hong bao draw

  • To have a 100% chance of winning the TOTO Jackpot, you will need to buy 13,983,816 Ordinary TOTO tickets.
  • 54 ordinary tickets are all it takes to at least win something.
  • I have 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with 1 TOTO ticket.

TOTO Results of Hong Bao Draw 2019

Here are the winning numbers
050814
163439
23
(Additional Number)

Details on Singapore Pools $13.6 Million Hong Bao Draw (SNOWBALLED)

Chinese New Year Hong bao (Ang Bao) TOTO Draw is a Singaporean’s “tradition” that we look forward to every Chinese New Year, where we have the Hong Bao Draw which gives out really high price money.

Talk about the real Singapore Dream, here it is!

Here are the details of the Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2019:

  • Prize Money: $12 Million
  • Draw date: 22 February 2019, 9.30pm (Friday)
  • Location of the draw: Singapore Pools Building, 210 Middle Road

What are the packages available for this Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2019?

Packages AvailableQuick Pick System 7Quick Pick Ordinary PickSingapore Sweep Ticket
$228 Pack30 x Quick Pick System 7

(10 TOTO Tickets of 3 System 7 each)
18 x Quick Pick Ordinary

(3 TOTO Tickets of 6 Quick Pick Each)
-
$20 Pack2 x Quick Pick System 7

(2 TOTO Tickets of 3 System 7 each)
18 x Quick Pick Ordinary

(1 TOTO Ticket of 3 Quick Pick)
1 Singapore Sweep Ticket
$10 Pack1 x Quick Pick System 7

(1 TOTO Ticket of Quick Pick System 7)
-1 Singapore Sweep Ticket

If you are unsure of terms such as “Quick Pick System 7” and “Quick Pick Ordinary”, the rest of the article will be able to help you out!

  • Reservations for $228 packs start on 25 January 2019, 8am and end on 18 February 2019, 12pm.
  • $10 and $20 packs are available from 18 February 2019, 6.10pm.

Singaporean’s Guide on how to TOTO

In the game of TOTO, one has to purchase a set of 6 numbers, selected from 1 to 49.

Types of TOTO bet and the cost of each type of bet

Types of BetCostDescription
Quick Pick$1The computer to select 6 number at random.
Ordinary Bet$1TOTO ticket buyer selects 6 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 7$7TOTO ticket buyer selects 7 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 8$28TOTO ticket buyer selects 8 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 9$84TOTO ticket buyer selects 9 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 10$210TOTO ticket buyer selects 10 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 11$462TOTO ticket buyer selects 11 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 12$924TOTO ticket buyer selects 12 numbers from 1 to 49.
System Roll$44TOTO ticket buyer only selects 5 numbers from 1 to 49. The 6th number is any of the guaranteed winning numbers.

Payouts of TOTO prize:

GroupPrize MoneyWinning Numbers Matched
1
(or known as 'Jackpot')
38% of prize pool
(minimum: $1 million or the amount stated)
All 6 numbers
28% of prize pool5 numbers + additional number
35.5% of prize pool5 numbers
43% of prize pool4 numbers + additional number
5$504 numbers
6$253 numbers + additional number
7$10 3 numbers

What is my chance of winning TOTO?

PrizeTOTO odds of winning
Group 1
(Jackpot)
1 in 13,983,816
Group 21 in 2,330,636
Group 31 in 55,491
Group 41 in 22,197
Group 51 in 1,083
Group 61 in 812
Group 71 in 61

source: Interactive Mathematics

For every dollar we spend getting a TOTO ticket, we are risking it by subjecting ourselves to the probability of winning something.

How much do I need to spend to at least win something?

To calculate the probability of winning at least some money, we sum up all the above-mentioned probability to derive at 0.0186. Which works out to be about 1 in 53.76.

This means that one needs to at least fork out $53.76, about 54 TOTO tickets to at least win some money.

Editor’s note: You can use this fraction calculator here.

Sounds good? Think again.

  • For Group 5, Group 6 and Group 7, the payout is $50, $25 and $10 respectively.
  • Hence, winning any of the group will result in you losing money given that the cost price is at $53.76.
  • Only by winning at least a Group 4 will the “investment” makes economic sense.

How much to win at least a Group 4 then?

  • Assuming we use the same data of the Hong Bao Draw in the year 2017, there are 2,516 Group 4 winners bagging $346 each.
  • We now turn a blind eye to anything Group 5 and below, we calculate to see how much we need to put in to win a Group 4 at least.
  • The odds of winning a Group 4 at least turns out to be 1 in 3,932.51.
  • This means that we need to put in at least $3,932.51 for a chance to win at least $346, which again, is not worth it.

The ultimate chart you need to illustrate the never-ending pursuit of quick wealth (based on 2018’s result):

Huat ah!

GroupHow much you need to buy?How much you win?
(based on 2018's Draw)
Profit/Loss
1
(Jackpot)
$13,983,816$6,013,609- $7,970,207
2$1,997,688$80,545 or more- $1,917,143 or less
3$53,991.25$1,870 or more-$52121.25 or less
4$3,932.51$357 or more- $3,575.51 or less
5$849.12$50 or more- $799.12 or less
6$415.07$25 or more- $290.07 or less
7$53.76$10 or more- $43.76 or less

The above chart shows that in order for a sure win, one needs to put in so much more money to compensate for the risks and the odds.

  • In order for one to win at least a Group 2, he needs to put in close to $2 million. The returns? A possible change of winning $80,545 or maybe $6 million for that year.

Data is based on Hong Bao Draw 2018’s statistics:

2018 Hong Bao Draw's Statistics

To illustrate the low probability of winning a TOTO, we lay out the odds of some life events for reference:

  • Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1/3,000,000
  • Odds of a Royal Flush in poker on the first 5 cards: 1/ 649,740
  • Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 1/662,000
  • Odds of dating a supermodel: 1/88,000
  • Odds of being murdered: 1/18,000
  • Odds of winning an Academy Award: 1/11,500

This means that I have a 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with my TOTO ticket.


Extra Reading: Are TOTO winnings subjected to tax?

Here’s a fun fact IF you win the Jackpot this Hong Bao Draw (BIG IF),

  • As winnings from betting is a windfall and do not come from an income nature, it is not subjected to Income Tax.

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About Ming Feng
A stint in Bloomberg gifted me with a beer belly, which only grew larger when I moved on to become a Professional Trader. Now I turn caffeine into digestible finance-related content.
You can contribute your thoughts like Ming Feng here.

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