facebookIn-Between Probability Guide: Here's How to Become an In-Between Expert!

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In-Between Probability Guide: Here's How to Become an In-Between Expert!

profileMing Feng

“Testing” our luck for the year with our friends and family is usually part of our Chinese New Year (CNY) celebration.

Regardless of what our Chinese Zodiac Feng Shui prediction says about our luck this year, it is only fair that we put it to the test to either confirm or debunk what we read.

Actions speak louder than words, and sometimes, by action, we mean a game of “in-between” with our friends and family members.

A typical gathering starts with feasting Chinese New Year Goodies before we ease into a game of Ban Luck” (Blackjack).

Source: Facebook | Chops Grill & Sides

After having “warmed up” our luck, we proceed to the intense game of “in-between”, where the outcome will determine if we have buffets or Maggie Mee for the rest of the week.

Disclaimer: While we do not endorse gambling, we provide information on its statistical probabilities to raise awareness. We urge individuals to gamble responsibly, understanding it is not a guaranteed way to make money. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling-related issues, seek support from appropriate resources. Gambling is a personal decision; consider the risks carefully before participating.


TL;DR: How to Win at In-Between — Probability of Hitting the “Tiang” or Getting “Outside”


Hitting the ‘TIANG’ Over a Game of In-Between

If you are unfamiliar with the game of in-between, we have provided you with a quick recap below.

For those familiar with the game of in-between, our greatest fear is that we will hit the ‘tiang’:

Source: Facebook | SAYS

Hitting the ‘tiang’ is a translation of hitting the goal post. It refers to a situation where the third card matches one of the cards instead of being in between or outside of the 2 cards already on the table.

If you hit the ‘tiang’ during a game of in-between, you lose double the amount you bet on.


Probability and Odd of Hitting the ‘Tiang’ Over a Game of In-Between

Source: Facebook | Sgag

Having been a victim of hitting ‘tiangs’, losing money and walking home from Jurong to Yishun during Chinese New Year, I made it my life’s mission to uncover the probability of winning the game of in-between with the help of statistics.

Depending on the mechanics of the in-between game that you and your friends or relatives have decided on, I will first break down the statistics with a few assumptions:

  • Firstly, we start from a fresh deck (with all 52 cards) every time the cards are dealt to an individual.
  • Ace will hold the value of ‘1’
  • King is the biggest card.

This means that getting an Ace and a King is the best starting hand in the game of in-between.

Possible Winning NumbersNumber of Cards in BetweenProbability of Winning
Being in between
Probability of Getting 'Outside'
Being out of range
Probability of Hitting the 'Tiang'
Pay double
11
(Example: Ace & King)
11 x 4 = 4488%0%12%
10
(Example: Ace & Queen)
10 x 4 = 4080%8%12%
9
(Example: Ace & Jack)
9 x 4 = 3672%16%12%
8
(Example: 3 & Queen)
8 x 4 = 3264%24%12%
7
(Example: 3 & Jack)
7 x 4 = 2856%32%12%
6
(Example: 5 & Queen)
6 x 4 = 2448%40%12%
5
(Example: 2 & 8)
5 x 4 = 2040%48%12%
4
(Example: Ace & 6)
4 x 4 = 1632%56%12%
3
(Example 4 & 8)
3 x 4 = 1224%64%12%
2
(Example 9 & Queen)
2 x 4 = 816%72%12%
1
(Example 3 & 5)
1 x 4 = 48%80%12%

To make sense of the table above:

  • The probability of winning is the odds of the third card being in between the two cards on your hand.
  • The possible winning numbers refer to the number of winning numbers in between.
    For example, if your hand is Nine and Queen, there are two winning numbers (ten and Jack)
  • As there are four suits of each number, the number of cards is the number of winning numbers multiplied by four.
  • There will be a constant 12% chance of you hitting the ‘tiang’, no matter your hand combination:

The way most Singaporeans play is that we do not start each hand with a fresh deck of cards, meaning we carry on with the cards until we deplete the deck.

This gives us a slight advantage of being able to see some of the cards that are already out.

To assist you with the calculation of the probability, simply

  • Add 2% to your winning probability if the card is outside
  • Minus 2% to your winning probability if the card is in between
  • You can also subtract 2% from your probability of hitting a ‘tiang’ if it is a similar number to the cards in your hand.

Further Reading: How To Play In-Between?

Here’s a quick recap on how to play in-between:

In-between is a fast-moving card game with relatively simple rules. But watch out, fast-moving means your money will be moving fast, too!

Step 1: Dealing with Cards

After the dealer shuffles the cards, one of the players will ‘cut’ the deck, splitting the deck into two. This is to ensure fairness in the game. This game can also be played by as many players as you want.

Step 2: Contribute to the Pot $$$

Each player will put a standardised amount into the pot of money to start the game.

Step 3: Starting the Game

The dealer will open two cards for the first player on his or her left.

The player will then bet money according to the chance of the third card falling between those two numbers. Step 4 will teach you how this thought process works:

Step 4: Rule Of Winning/ Losing

Winning or losing money depends on the third card the dealer opens for you. If the card:

  • Falls in between the two cards: You win the amount you previously bet from the common pot of money
  • Falls outside of the two cards: You lose the amount of money you bet to the common pot
  • It is precisely the same number as either two of the opened cards: You lose 2X the amount you previously bet to the common pot of money.

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About Ming Feng
A stint in Bloomberg gifted me with a beer belly, which only grew larger when I moved on to become a Professional Trader. Now I turn caffeine into digestible finance-related content.
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