Toto Hong Bao Draw 2024: Winning \$12 Million Dollar TOTO Prize With the Help of Statistics. Is It Worth It?

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# Toto Hong Bao Draw 2024: Winning \$12 Million Dollar TOTO Prize With the Help of Statistics. Is It Worth It?

Ming Feng

β

Winning the TOTO is every Singaporean’s dream. With every Lunar New Year, comes the HONG BAO DRAW (courtesy of Singapore Pools), when Singaporeans stand a chance to be a millionaire.

About time we start looking for inspirations for your 6 magic numbers to shade on the TOTO paper.

This Lunar New Year, we have a \$12 Million Hong Bao Draw which happened on 23 February 2024, at 9.30pm.

The draw was conducted at the Singapore Pools Building, 210 Middle Road.

I personally “invest” in TOTO every year for the Hong Bao Draw just to try my luck a little. While this “investment plan” has yet to generate any returns…

I stay hopeful that it shall one day, make my yearly investment of \$10 worthwhile. Wish me luck!

Disclaimer: While we do not endorse gambling, we provide information on its statistical probabilities to raise awareness. We urge individuals to gamble responsibly, understanding it is not a guaranteed way to make money. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling-related issues, seek support from appropriate resources. Gambling is a personal decision; consider the risks carefully before participating.

## TL;DR: We Wanted to Hack the TOTO With Math… And Here’s What We Found Out

### Update as of 23 Feb 2024: TOTO Results of Hong Bao Draw 2024 – Winning Numbers and Additional Numbers

The winning numbers are: 18, 21, 26, 35, 38, 43; Additional number: 40.

The total winning share of Group 1 was \$12,351,840, and four winners took home \$3,087,960.

Now… How much do you need to spend to win the Group 1?

We dived deeper into the statistics…

• To have a 100% chance of winning the TOTO Jackpot, you must buy 13,983,816 Ordinary TOTO tickets, which will cost you \$13,983,816!
• You will need at least 54 ordinary tickets to at least win something
• I have a 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with 1 TOTO ticket.

If you’re not planning to buy TOTO, then at least put your money in a high-interest savings account.

Don’t blur blur and leave your money in a regular savings account, which only gives you 0.05% interest…

## Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2024 \$12 Million

Chinese New Year Hong Bao (Ang Bao) TOTO Draw is a Singaporean “tradition” that we look forward to every Chinese New Year, where we have the Hong Bao Draw, which gives out really expensive money.

Talk about the real Singapore Dream. Here it is!

Here are the details of the Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2024:

• Prize Money: \$12 Million
• Draw date: 23 February 2024, 9.30pm (Friday)
• Location of the draw: Singapore Pools Building, 210 Middle Road

## What Are the Packages Available for This Singapore Pools Hong Bao Draw 2024?

This time around, there will be \$10 and \$20 packs available.

Packages AvailableQuick Pick System 7Quick Pick Ordinary PickSingapore Sweep Ticket
\$20 Pack1 TOTO ticket | \$14

(2 boards of Quick Pick System 7)
1 TOTO ticket | \$3

(3 boards of Quick Pick Ordinary)
1 Singapore Sweep ticket | \$3

(for coming draw)
\$10 Pack1 TOTO ticket | \$7

(1 board of Quick Pick System 7)
-1 Singapore Sweep ticket | \$3

(for coming draw)

If you are unsure of terms such as “Quick Pick System 7” and “Quick Pick Ordinary”, the rest of the article will be able to help you out!

• \$10 and \$20 packs are available from Monday, 19 February 2024, at 6.10pm.

All Singapore Pool branches will also be extending their operating hours to 9pm on 23 February 2024.

## TOTO Singaporean’s Guide on How to Play TOTO

In the game of TOTO, one has to purchase a set of 6 numbers, selected from 1 to 49.

During the draw, 6 numbers plus an additional number will be drawn. These will form the set of winning numbers. In order to win, you need to have at least three numbers that match the winning numbers.

And before you forget, you will need to know that 54% of sales in each draw will be added to the prize pool.

## Types of Singapore Pools TOTO Bet and the Cost of Each Type of Bet

If you are a total ‘NOOB’ when it comes to TOTO, we compiled it here for you to refer to when you take that leap of faith at any Singapore Pools outlet.

Toto typically takes place every Monday and Thursday at 6.30pm and special draws such as the Hong Bao draw or cascade draw will take place at 9.30pm.

Types of BetCostDescription
Quick Pick\$1The computer selects 6 numbers at random.
Ordinary Bet\$1TOTO ticket buyer selects 6 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 7\$7TOTO ticket buyer selects 7 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 8\$28TOTO ticket buyer selects 8 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 9\$84TOTO ticket buyer selects 9 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 10\$210TOTO ticket buyer selects 10 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 11\$462TOTO ticket buyer selects 11 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 12\$924TOTO ticket buyer selects 12 numbers from 1 to 49.
System Roll\$44TOTO ticket buyer only selects 5 numbers from 1 to 49. The 6th number is any of the guaranteed winning numbers, aka the rolling number ,'R'. This number represents the remaining 44 numbers that you didn't choose.
Group Toto - can only be placed at physical outlets\$7 (minimum)Group Toto allows you to split your Toto bet with more people, with a limit of up to 10 tickets printed. The cost of each ticket depends on the number of tickets printed, but it's minimally priced at \$7.
iToto\$33TOTO ticket buyers can buy more than 1 unit of a Quick Pick System 12 entry. All 28 units of an existing iToto bet must be sold before any new iToto bet is generated based on demand. Essentially, by buying more than one unit, you're purchasing multiple units of the same set of numbers. The prize amount will also be divided 28 units according to the prize structure.

## Payouts of TOTO Prize

Here’s what the payout will look like should you win any of the categories.

Prize GroupPrize MoneyWinning Numbers Matched
Group 1
(or known as 'Jackpot')
38% of prize pool
(minimum: \$1 million or the amount stated)
All 6 numbers
Group 28% of prize pool5 numbers + additional number
Group 35.5% of prize pool5 numbers
Group 43% of prize pool4 numbers + additional number
Group 5\$504 numbers
Group 6\$253 numbers + additional number
Group 7\$10 3 numbers

For all the math gurus out there, Singapore Pools has carved out tables on the winning prizes based on different permutations and your betting type.

In cases where there are multiple winners from Group 1 to 4 categories, prizes are divided equally among all winners of the respective groups. The prizes for Groups 5 to 7 are fixed.

Still wondering how much you’ll be getting?

You can use a Toto-winning prize calculator by Singapore Pools to calculate your winnings.

### Snowballing and Cascading Draw

As the name goes, the prize money snowballs when there is no winner in the Group 1, 2, 3, or 4 categories, and will be added to the prize money within the same group of the next draw.

The prize money for Groups 2, 3, and 4 will snowball until it’s won, whereas Group 1 prize money (Jackpot) snowballs only up to the 4th draw, which leads to the Cascade Draw.

If there is no Group 1 Prize winner at the end of four consecutive draws, the final jackpot amount (i.e. 38% of the fourth draw’s prize pool plus snowballed amount from the three preceding draws) cascades, and it will be paid to the next prize group with the winner(s) and shared equally.

## What Is My Chance of Winning TOTO?

“ζδΉ°ζεΈζ” (there’s hope only if you buy) is what we hear punters say all the time, especially after placing bets every week.

Statistically, there are 13,983,816 ways of choosing 6 numbers from 49 numbers but there is only one correct combination.

But, we all know that it’s not really easy to win when we look at the probabilities:

PrizeTOTO odds of winning
Group 1
(Jackpot)
1 in 13,983,816
Group 21 in 2,330,636
Group 31 in 55,491
Group 41 in 22,197
Group 51 in 1,083
Group 61 in 812
Group 71 in 61

This means we have to buy almost 14 million tickets (at a cost of \$14 million) before we can confidently say we will probably win the top prize…

Source: Interactive Mathematics

## How Much Do You Need to Spend to at Least Win Any Prize?

To calculate the probability of winning at least some money from the prize pool, we sum up all the above-mentioned probabilities to derive 0.0186.Β Which works out to be about 1 in 53.76.

This means that you would need to fork out \$53.76, about 54 TOTO tickets to at least win some money.

### Sounds Like a Good Deal? Think again.

• For Group 5, Group 6, and Group 7, the payout is \$50, \$25, and \$10 respectively.
• Hence, winning any of the groups will result in you losing money given that the cost price is \$53.76.
• Only by winning at least a Group 4 will the “investment” makes economic sense.

### How Much to Win at Least a Group 4 Then?

It’s almost impossible to calculate the actual value because we won’t be able to predict the overall sales and how many winners there will be in each category.

If you recall, the prize money in Groups 1, 2, 3 & 4 will be split in the event that there are multiple winners for each group, and 54% of the sales in the draw will be added to the prize pool.

Assuming \$12 million is actually 38% of the total prize pool (because this has happened before in 2020), this will bring us to a total prize pool is \$31,578,947.

With that, this is what we derived for you to at least win a Group 4 prize:

Winning CategoryOddsPrize Value in 2023Average no. of winners from 2020 to 2022Possible Winnings Per Individual in 2023Odds of Winning Specific Groups & its Value in 2023
Group 1 (38%)1 in 13,983,816\$12,000,0005\$2,400,0000.17
Group 2 (8%)1 in 2,330,636\$2,526,31530\$84,210.500.04
Group 3 (5.5%)1 in 55,491\$1,736,8421,143\$1,519.550.027
Group 4 (3%)1 in 22,197\$947,3682,933\$3230.014

## The Ultimate Chart You Need to Illustrate the Never-Ending Pursuit of Quick Wealth (Based on 2022 & 2023’s Result)

Huat ah!

GroupHow Much to Buy?
(For 100% Win)
How Much You Win?
(Based on 2021 Hong Bao Draw Results)
Profit/ Loss
(Based on 2020 Hong Bao Draw Results)
How Much You Win?
(Based on 2020 Hong Bao Draw Results)
Profit/ Loss
(Based on 2020 Hong Bao Draw Results)
Jackpot
(Group 1)
\$13,983,816\$2,386,178-\$11,597,638\$12,000,000-\$1,983,816
Group 2\$2,330,636\$79,833 or more-\$2,250,803 or less\$101,649 or more-\$2,228,987 or less
Group 3\$55,491\$1,756 or more-\$53,735 or less\$1,464 or more-\$54,027 or less
Group 4\$22,197\$398 or more-\$21,899 or less\$326 or more-\$21,871 or less
Group 5\$1,083\$50 or more-\$1,033 or less\$50 or more-\$1,033 or less
Group 6\$812\$25 or more-\$787 or less\$25 or more-\$787 or less
Group 7\$61\$10 or more-\$51 or less\$10 or more-\$51 or less

The above chart shows that in order for a sure win, one needs to put in so much more money to compensate for the risks and the odds.

In order for one person to win at least a Group 2, he needs to put in at least \$2 million. The returns? A possible chance of winning is \$84,210.50.

Data is based on Hong Bao Draw 2023’s statistics:

To illustrate the low probability of winning a TOTO, we lay out the odds of some life events for reference:

• Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1/3,000,000
• Odds of a Royal Flush in poker on the first 5 cards: 1/649,740
• Odds of winning an Olympic gold medal: 1/662,000
• Odds of dating a supermodel: 1/88,000

This means I have a 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with my TOTO ticket.

## Extra Reading: Are TOTO winnings subjected to tax?

Here’s a fun fact IF you win the Jackpot this Hong Bao Draw (BIG IF)…

As winnings from betting is a windfall and does not count as income, it is therefore NOT subject to Income Tax.

Heng ah…

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About Ming Feng
A stint in Bloomberg gifted me with a beer belly, which only grew larger when I moved on to become a Professional Trader. Now I turn caffeine into digestible finance-related content.
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