No, this isn’t a BTS concert, you’re watching the 2022 FIFA World Cup!
Football fans worldwide Soccer (not including those who watched World Cup just for Jungkook… you know who you are 👀) have been waiting for this month-long tournament for the longest time!
You don’t need to be a soccer fan to know that World Cup betting is extremely common, even those who don’t usually participate in football betting and would try their luck because of the event only comes around once every four years…
We don’t encourage gambling, but if you’re planning to try your luck, keep your eyes peeled as you watch the games…
At the very least, learn about your odds of ‘winning.’
Disclaimer: The information provided by Seedly serves as an educational piece and is not intended to be personalised financial advice.
TL;DR: World Cup Odds of Winning & How Much You Need To Bet to Win
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Who Is Predicted to Win The World Cup 2022?
For those who’re not aware, a professor from the University of Oxford has predicted that Brazil will be this year’s FIFA 2022 World Cup winner!
Dr. Joshua Adam Bull has created a mathematical model which predicts that Brazil has a 14.72% chance of winning the trophy.
Here are the top teams’ odds of winning the 2022 World Cup in descending order:
- Brazil: 14.72%
- Argentina: 14.36%
- Netherlands: 7.84%
- Spain: 7.03%
- France: 6.37%
- Belgium: 6.31%
- Portugal: 5.60%
- Denmark: 4.94%
- Germany: 3.84%
- Uruguay: 3.55%
Without going too much into the technicalities, the model was created based on these assumptions:
- The difference in the expected number of goals that two teams will score is well correlated with the difference in their World rating (i.e. from Eloratings.net)
- For each simulated match, predict the difference in the number of goals
World Cup Qualifiers Prediction
The scientist went as far as predicting the result of each match, with Brazil winning against Belgium in the final:
This prediction is also supported by BBC’s predictions for the World Cup; with the broadcaster predicting that Brazil will win the World Cup.
But, you have to take all these predictions and mathematical models with a huge pinch of salt as there’s really no telling what will happen.
Types of World Cup 2022 Bet and the Cost of Each Type of Bet
Looking For An Asian Bookie?
For those who’re not aware, Singapore Pools is the only legal operator you can place your bets with.
When placing a football bet, you will first need to pick from three selections – Home, Draw, or Away.
Not just that, based on the game’s progress, your selection can change, and there are many ways to
throw your money away to bet at Singapore Pools:
|1X2||The winner (where one team scores more goals than the other team) or a draw (where both teams score an equal number of goals) is based on the Fulltime Score||Win by the Home Team||Draw between the Home Team and the Away Team||Win by the Away Team|
|Halftime 1X2||The winner (where one team scores more goals than the other team) or a draw (where both teams score an equal number of goals) based on the First Half Score||Win by the Home Team based on First Half Score||Draw between the Home Team and the Away Team based on First Half Score||Win by the Away Team based on First Half Score|
|Pick the Score (PTS)/Fulltime PTS||The Fulltime Score.|
When the Fulltime Score is not in the list of possible Fulltime Score outcomes, Any Other Score (AOS) will be deemed the winning selection
|Based on a list of possible Fulltime Score outcomes with Home Team wins, Away Team wins, Draws and an Any Other Score (AOS) selection|
|Halftime Pick the Score (PTS)||The First Half Score.|
When the First Half Score is not on the list of possible First Half Score outcomes, AOS will be deemed the winning selection
|Based on a list of possible First Half Score outcomes with Home Team wins, Away Team wins, Draws and an Any Other Score (AOS) selection|
|Team to Score First Goal||The Team scoring the first Valid Goal in the Match during Regulation Time.|
In the event no Valid Goals are scored in the Match during Regulation Time, the Result shall be "No 1st Goal"
|Home Team||No Valid Goals scored ( "No 1st Goal")||Away Team|
|1st Goal Scorer||In the event no Valid Goal is scored in the Match during Regulation Time, the Result shall be "No Goal". In the event there is at least one (1) Valid Goal scored in the Match during Regulation Time, the Result shall be:|
- Where the player who scored the First Valid Goal is a Selected Player, that player
- Where the player who scored the First Valid Goal is from the Home Team or Away Team but is not a Selected Player, "Player Not Listed"
|Such players from the Home Team or the Away Team as may be selected by the Company in its sole and absolute discretion
Any player from the Home Team or Away Team who is not a Selected Player (described as "Player Not Listed")
No Valid Goal scored (described as "No Goal")
|Last Goal Scorer||In the event no Valid Goal is scored in the Match during Regulation Time, the Result shall be "No Goal". In the event there is at least one (1) Valid Goal scored in the Match during Regulation Time, the Result shall be:
- Where the player who scored the Last Valid Goal is a Selected Player, that player
- Where the player who scored the Last Valid Goal is from the Home Team or Away Team but is not a Selected Player, "Player Not Listed"
World Cup 2022 Odds of Winning & Payouts
The minimum stake for a bet is S$5.
If you wish to bet on the winner of a particular match, commonly known as bet type 1X2 at the Singapore Pools, here’s what you need to know.
Betting on a win, draw, or away is one of the easiest ways to bet on your favorite soccer team.
Singapore Pools has the following odds for the World Cup on its site:
What this means is that if you have placed $1 on Brazil, you will win $4.20 (yup, just nice for a plate of chicken rice). With a $5 minimum stake, your return will minimally be $21.
However, you might want to think again.
Given the odds shown above, here are the implied probabilities that the bookmaker (in this case, Singapore Pools) priced at.
Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It takes into account the bookmaker margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring.
As bookmakers can very rarely make the perfect odds, they need to find a way to lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the football match. There is an in-built margin that ensures a bookie’s advantage to win long-term.
This formula is used when we calculate implied probability:
Implied probability = (1 / decimal odds) * 100
So, according to Singapore Pools’ odds, these are the implied probabilities we found:
|Country||Odds||Implied Probability of Winning The Title|
|United States of America||100.00||1%|
If you noticed, when you add up the implied probabilities, you would have 152.86%. The excess 52.86% will be what we call a bookmakers’ margin.
Anyone who knows a thing about betting is… if the bookie wins in the long run, it means that consumers will ultimately end up losing.
How Much Payouts Do You Get?
Based on 2014’s results where Germany won, a punter had bet $100 and won $15,000, so this means the payout was 150 times the original amount!
Generally, the payout will very much depend on how much you’re willing to bet.
Singapore Pools Multiples Betting
Those who wish to take up a higher risk for their bets, they can go for the Multiples bet option.
A Multiples bet option with the Singapore Pools is a combination of two or more selections. In order to win your bet, you need all your selections to be accurate. The odds of the bet will be the sum of all the odds multiplied.
Assuming you placed your bet on three different teams to win:
- Team A has an odd of 2.0
- Team B has an odd of 1.5
- Team C has an odd of 5.0
A Multiples bet allows you to place a dollar bet on the above three bets in one go. In the event that Teams A, B, and C win their matches, you will receive exponential returns on your bet.
In this case, the return for every dollar from the Multiples bet will be 2.0 x 1.5 x 5.0 = 15.
Do take note that the probability of all three events happening can be quite challenging. Using the same example, and assuming no bookie’s margin:
- Team A has a 50% chance of winning
- Team B has a 67% chance of winning
- Team C has a 5% chance of winning
Using these probabilities, the final probability of all three events occurring is 50% x 67% x 5% = 1.68%.
This means that you will have a 1.68% chance of winning $15 and a 98.32% chance of losing. Your expected return, in this case, is $0.25.
The expected return is way lower than your initial betting cost. Again, you are on the losing end.
Who Are Your World Cup Favourites?
As the saying goes, a dollar saved is a dollar earned.
Here at Seedly, we encourage our readers to manage their personal finance wisely, and sometimes this means, ditching old habits to do better things.
If you know of someone who has spent quite a portion of their savings trying to game the math of soccer betting, you may want to refer them to the National Council on Problem Gambling:
Who do you think will win the World Cup this year?
Share your thoughts with us on the Seedly Community!
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